Revival by Rios His Contract and Yes Sam

Revival by Rios His Contract and Yes Sam

Mesajde sherry2018love » Vin Oct 13, 2017 11:20 am

The 2010 season isnt going how a Chicago White Sox had hoped. They're currently 7.5 games behind the Twins, and 5.5 behind the surprising Tigers. Its still early, but given the talent gap between the Twins and White Sox, and the unlikelihood of the AL Wild Card coming out of a division apart from the East, the White Sox playoff odds are fading rapidly. Starts at DH by Juan Pierre, Zombie Mark Kotsay, and, most importantly, Zombie Omar Vizquel are a fitting review of the troublesome season on South Side.
There happen to be bright spots. Paul Konerko and, particularly, Andruw Jones have been hitting much better than they have in a long time. One hitter whose season is off to an excellent start while not getting much pre s (although Im sure White Sox fans are aware) is Alex Rios. Rios, Frankie Williams Jersey who came in a waiver claim from Toronto last August, has been on fire offensively, hitting .308/.350/.564 (.401 wOBA) while stealing bases efficiently and playing good center field defense. This might be an unexpected to many given his terrible 2009, when the Blue Jays let him go for nothing in exchange apart from someone prepared to take on the rest of the seven-year, $70 billion dollar contract that extends through 2014 (having a 2015 club option). Even though many analysts criticized the initial contract along with the White Sox/Blue Jays decisions to pick him up/let him go, as Dave Cameron and Tom Tango showed last season, the 3 decisions were justifiable at that time these were made.
Rios didnt improve upon arrival in Chicago, to say the least, and handle 2009 having a horrific .247/.296/.395 line (.306 wOBA), with his fielding nowhere near his usual standard. Some probably thought the Jays had pawned off an albatro s. To date in 2010, however, there aren't any obvious luck indicators for Rios. His current average on balls in play (.312) is actually le s than his career average (.319), and hes hitting lots of line drives before it is unsustainable. His homer per fly ball rates are a bit up, but not exce sively, and it may be that he's more appropriate to his new home park. Hit Tracker doesnt see him as overly lucky, in any case. Rios walk rates are down a little and his O-Swing% is up a little, so those count tracking.
I doubt anyone thinks that Hakeem Nicks Jersey Rios true offensive talent is really .400 wOBA. ZiPS sees his current true talent (rest of season) as .350 wOBA. Given his performance to date, if he hits .350 with average defense (to increase his current +7 figure) for the rest of the growing season, he'll be worth about five wins this year. Thats a good deal for that White Sox money this season (Rios is owed $9.Seven million guaranteed).
What about going forward? From 2011 to 2014, Chicago owes Rios about $49 million dollars. A suming a gentle salary inflation (7%) and 0.5 WAR a season decline, theyre spending money on a person who definitely are worth somewhere between 3 and three.5 wins this year. A suming Rios is really a .350 wOBA hitter, which makes him a +12 hitter over 700 PA. I currently estimate Rios to become about a +4 position neutral defender. +12 hitting + 4 defense +25 AL replacement level all times 85% playing time = a 3.5 WAR player. This is a decent deal for that Sox. Not great, it isnt as if the contract could be easy to trade if they desired to achieve this. However it hardly looks like an albatro s at this point.
A more interesting part of this whole thing is due to sample size. Yes, I understand, that gets mentioned here Joe Haeg Jersey all the time. The ZiPS RoS projections incorporate the proper amounts of regre sion for that various components, therefore it isnt as if the current .350 wOBA projection gets fooled the hot start. The point about sample size I wish to make isnt about 2010, though. Rather, it is about the overreaction that many had to Rios 2009. Rios was bad in '09. However, from 2006-2008 he was worth an average of 4.5 wins a season. That history didn't disappear during or after 2009. So often we obtain wrapped up in pointing out the current months are a small sample size that people forget that a whole season (Rios had 633 PA in 149 games in 2009) tells us surprisingly little in regards to a players true talent. That isnt to say that 2009 is deserving of trashed being an outlier. But when previous performance and regre sion towards the mean are taken into consideration, even the value of a full season could be exaggerated.
Im unsure the White Sox front office was thinking in exactly these terms once the picked Rios up off of waivers Im sure they consulted their scouts heavily, too they ought to have. However it came about, they rightly Jack Mewhort Jersey understood there was more to Rios than his 2009 performance, and got an excellent player in a reasonable price without quitting talent. 2009 counts, but it wasnt the entire story or the whole sample.
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